Meteorologists have determined how the climate of Belarus will change in the coming decades. This is discussed in the analytical note "Agro-climatic zoning of the territory of Belarus, taking into account climate change," which is posted on the website of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, according to BELTA.
Meteorologists have determined how the climate of Belarus will change in the coming decades. This is discussed in the analytical note "Agro-climatic zoning of the territory of Belarus, taking into account climate change," which is posted on the website of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, according to BELTA.
Specialists have systematized information on climatic and agro-climatic conditions in Belarus for the period from 1989 to 2015. According to meteorologists, since 1989, Belarus has entered the longest warming period in the entire history of instrumental observations over the last almost 130 years. For the period from 1989 to 2015, the average annual air temperature in Belarus exceeded the climate norm by 1.3 degrees. In 2015, the average annual air temperature was plus 8.5 degrees, which is 2.7 degrees higher than the climate norm, and turned out to be the highest for the entire observation period.
As a result of warming, the boundaries of agro-climatic zones in Belarus have changed. The northern agro-climatic region has disintegrated, and a new, warmer zone has formed in the south of Polesie. Currently, the territory of Belarus is divided into four agro-climatic regions: northern, central, southern, and new. Research shows that the trend towards climate change in the direction of warming will continue in the coming decades.
Researchers have studied several climate models to predict climate change. The authors consider two scenarios: medium anthropogenic radiative forcing and strict. The latter scenario is assessed as unlikely.
According to the first scenario, the duration of the warm period with a sum of air temperatures above zero will increase by an average of 35 days by 2041-2060, ranging from 280 to 310 days. "In the extreme southwest, near Brest, the average duration of such a period will be 365 days, meaning there will be no winter," the document states. Average temperatures in different seasons will increase by 1.6-2.4 degrees. A slight increase in precipitation is expected in autumn and winter. In spring and summer, the amount will practically remain unchanged, but the moisture supply for agricultural crops in summer will decrease due to rising air temperatures.
The stringent scenario assumes an increase in the warm period with a sum of air temperatures above zero by 54 days by 2041-2060. Average temperatures in different seasons will rise by 2.3-3.1 degrees. In this case, in summer, due to high temperatures and lack of moisture, the aridity of the territory will increase, which will require changes in the cultivation technologies for a number of agricultural crops.
In the coming decades, new changes in the boundaries of agro-climatic zones are expected in Belarus. "By 2030, the Central agro-climatic zone will practically disintegrate, and the former Southern zone will take its place. At the same time, the cultivation of grain corn and sunflowers will become possible throughout almost the entire territory of Belarus. A new agro-climatic zone will advance far to the north and take the place of the southern one, and even warmer agro-climatic zones will appear in the south of the country," the analytical note says.
A significant change in the growing conditions for agricultural crops will require adjustments in agricultural practices and consideration in the development of agricultural production strategies. In some areas of Belarus, more favorable conditions for agriculture (particularly crop production) may arise in terms of heat supply. Increased productivity can be achieved by introducing and expanding the cultivation of more heat-loving and higher-yielding crops. At the same time, a deterioration in soil moisture supply and an increased risk of droughts are expected. Meteorologists note that farmers will need to adapt to both the positive and negative consequences of climate change.