The average monthly inflation of 1.5% will persist until the end of 2012.
29/06/20120 views
On June 29, Minsk / Lilia Krapivina - BELTA /. The average monthly inflation in Belarus at the level of 1.5% will be maintained until the end of 2012. This was stated today to journalists by the Head of the Main Department of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy, Anton Dolgovichny, as reported by BELTA correspondent.
In Belarus, according to the results of five months, inflation amounted to 8.5%, the forecast for 2012 of 20-22% is being met. "I think there will be about 20% inflation, an average of 1.5% per month, this level of average monthly price growth will continue until the end of the year," noted Anton Dolgovichny. This is due to some inertia of inflationary processes, as well as the devaluation potential that was accumulated last year. The growth of consumer prices may be somewhat higher due to the increase in the level of payment for housing and communal services. Belarus has international obligations to the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund, Anton Dolgovichny reminded. But there are also social obligations of the state to the population, he added. "But we will maintain a balance regarding wage growth and an increase in the level of payment for housing and communal services," said the representative of the Ministry of Economy.
In Belarus, monetary and credit, as well as fiscal and tax policies have been tightened, and this has had a restraining effect on investment expenditures. As a result, investment expenditures in machinery and equipment decreased by approximately 14% over the past period of the current year. But this is an objective factor due to the high interest rate, which in turn also helped to curb inflation growth.
Anton Dolgovichny commented on the results of the socio-economic development of the republic for 5 months of 2012. "Overall, if we look at the industry dynamics, the 2011 currency crisis did not turn into an economic one, there is no recession, there is positive growth dynamics," he emphasized. This was also confirmed by the growth in the number of legal entities in Belarus. As of June 1, 2012, there were 3% more of them compared to the beginning of the year and 4.5% more compared to June 1 of last year. Moreover, the increase was noted in the non-state sector. "This indicates a recovery in business activity in Belarus," the expert stressed.
The foundation of economic growth (103.1% GDP growth rate for 5 months) was laid by industry. At the same time, industry contributed 2% to GDP growth. The main sectors that ensured the dynamics of industrial production were oil refining (18% growth) and the chemical industry (37% growth). Inventories of finished products are at a stable level, amounting to slightly over 51% of the average monthly production level. According to Anton Dolgovochny's assessment, this is significantly lower than the inventory indicators over the past 10 years, which indicates efficiently developing production. In addition, trade, transport and communications, and agriculture made a significant contribution to GDP growth. Labor productivity growth in terms of value added was ensured at the level of 5.3%. Positive dynamics are also maintained in the financial condition of industrial enterprises. Their profitability has significantly increased to over 11%, which is above the projected level.
Measures have been taken in Belarus to curb domestic demand. This has led to a reduction in construction volumes, resulting in a negative contribution of the construction sector to GDP formation of minus 1.3%, stated Anton Dolgovochny.
He also pointed out the still low inflow of net direct foreign investment. It amounted to $605.7 million for January-May. According to the expert's assessment, there is not yet an active process of creating new high-tech jobs observed in the republic.
Positive trends continue to strengthen in foreign trade in goods and services. A growth in the positive balance of foreign trade in goods and services was ensured in January-April in the amount of $2.3 billion. This result has been achieved for the first time in the republic over the last 5 years, emphasized Anton Dolgovochny.-0-
BELTA